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Methodology

How every number in Deltryx is measured

Marketing data is full of gaps, overlaps and estimates. These are the rules the product follows so you always know what a number is, where it came from and how far to trust it.

How every number in Deltryx is measured

Unavailable is not zero

When a platform does not report a value, or a source is not connected, Deltryx shows "—" (not available). It never fills the gap with 0, because a zero would pull down totals, averages and ratios that are actually unknown.

  • View-through conversions a platform does not return stay empty, not zero
  • A ratio with an unknown side (ROAS without revenue) is not computed
  • Charts break the line instead of drawing it down to zero

Four kinds of revenue, never merged

Store revenue, platform-reported revenue, attributed revenue and incremental revenue answer different questions. They sit side by side with their own labels and are never added together or swapped for one another.

  • Store revenue: orders recorded by your store (the reference)
  • Platform-reported: what each ad platform claims with its own attribution
  • Attributed: Deltryx's split of store revenue by the model you choose
  • Incremental: revenue that would not have happened without the spend, from tests or models

Every number carries its evidence

Each session, touchpoint and order is tagged with how its source is known. You can open any attributed order and see the exact evidence behind it.

  • Verified: a signed store webhook, an explicit UTM tag or a platform click ID
  • Inferred: a referrer or a click ID without tagging, shown as such
  • Unknown: no evidence, kept as its own row instead of being called direct
  • Estimated: produced by a statistical model, always marked as an estimate

One source per channel and day

When live API data exists for a channel and day, aggregate rows imported from spreadsheets for the same channel and day are dropped. The two sources are never summed, so spend and conversions are not counted twice.

When a marketing mix model is shown

Attribution and view-through

Rule-based models (last click, first click, linear, time decay, position based) and a data-driven model run on the same touchpoints, with windows you choose. View-through credit is only added through one capped path: it can never exceed what was left as direct or unattributed, so it cannot inflate total revenue.

When a marketing mix model is shown

The marketing mix model needs at least 56 days of daily data and is checked against days it was not trained on. If any validity check fails, Deltryx shows why and does not hand its numbers to reports or the assistant.

  • Out-of-sample error and fit are reported with every run
  • Implausible results flag the model: a negative baseline, nearly all revenue given to one channel, or an incremental return far beyond what spend can explain
  • Channels whose spend moves together cannot be separated and are flagged as overlapping
  • Confidence intervals come from repeated refits and are shown with every channel

Incrementality tests

A geo or time holdout test reports a return only when spend actually moved during the test and the measured effect is outside the margin of error. Otherwise the result is reported as inconclusive, with no return figure.

Margins and profit

Profit uses the margin measured from your order costs when they are available, and falls back to the margin you entered otherwise. The source of the margin is always shown next to the figure.

Questions, answered plainly

Why do platform totals not match store revenue?

Each platform credits itself with its own window and rules, and several platforms often claim the same order. Deltryx keeps platform-reported revenue as reported and compares it to store revenue instead of forcing them to agree.

Can I see why an order was attributed to a campaign?

Yes. Every attributed order has an evidence trail: the sessions, touchpoints, click IDs or UTM tags behind it, and whether each one is verified or inferred.

What happens when a model is not valid?

Its numbers are hidden from reports and from the AI assistant, and the page explains which check failed and what data would fix it.

See your own numbers, labelled honestly

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